After doing an analysis of the voting and spending trends of the 2022 congressional races in New York, another factor seemed worth commenting regarding which party won certain districts: the percentage of White voters.

In the districts which were 76.0% White people over 18 years old (there were five of them), Republicans won every race. In districts which had fewer than 52.0% White voters (ten of them), Democrats won each race. The remaining eleven districts which had between 52.0% and 76.0% White voters, were split, with five for Democrats and six for Republicans.

The sharp break in blue, red and purple districts does NOT correlate in a similar fashion for median income levels. Many of the districts with the highest percentage of White voters (like NY-21, NY-22 and NY-23) have median incomes below solidly Democratic districts.

Democrats and Republicans will likely battle very intensively for the House in 2024, and spend even more than the $92 million they spent in New York in 2022. The most contested battles will likely be in those districts with between 52.0% and 76.0% White voters.